Studio Accelerate · KulaSTAGE 4 · THE YIELD MAP

The Pacific Pilates Yield Map — where members slip, and what's winnable.

Stage 3 drew your business as a curve. Stage 4 puts a dollar on each slip point along it, using what your own members are actually worth — and names the most valuable one to fix first.

Integrity first. More human, not less.

The map

The curve, with the slip points pinned to it

This is the organic member journey from Stage 3 — of those who pay to start, how many are still showing up. The shaded zones are where members slip away. The flag at month eight is where staying starts to predict staying.

First-month cliff (biggest slip point) Settle bleed Nearly made it Month-8 lock-in (the prize)
The engine

What a member is worth, by how far they get

Real realised revenue across the first year, per starter, grouped by how far they reached. This table drives every dollar in the report: a member who reaches lock-in is worth about 14 times one who falls at the cliff.

$116
Bought, never booked
27 members
$112
Fell at the cliff
278 members
$298
Gone by month 3
60 members
$645
Gone by month 8
46 members
$1,519
Reached lock-in
70 members

Cohort: 481 true-new organic starters, Jan–May 2025. Avg 12-month realised revenue, gross of refunds (~1%). 🟢 measured.

The register

The slip points, ranked by what's winnable

Each lost member is counted once. Cost = the value at risk if everyone at that stage were saved. Recoverable = a deliberately small, stated fraction of it. Plan against the conservative figure; treat stretch as upside.

Slip point (in your words)Members/yrAnnual cost Win-back rateWinnableLever
Held — not sized, on purpose. Three slip points can't be committed from current data, so they aren't: ClassPass substitution (off-system, $0 in your POS — but now with a measured trend: see the pattern watch below), the grandfathered Unlimited Yoga Fortnightly gap (93 members billing $64/fortnight against ~$86+ on the current no-lock-in rung — a real, voluntary-upgrade-only opportunity once the current rate card is confirmed), and silent decay / paused drift (needs a pause-and-frequency data cut). Each names exactly what would size it.
Two levers, never added

Getting them in vs keeping them longer

Different machines, different owners. At Pacific Pilates the front of the curve is worth about 3.5× the middle — and the cliff is almost the whole of it.

Conversion lever · front of curve
$64k / $142k
conservative / stretch per year · more starters reach the retained core · Studio-Whisper-type, at the front door and the cliff
Tenure lever · middle of curve
$18k / $36k
conservative / stretch per year · settled members keep coming · Teacher-Whisper-type, settle → lock-in
Two acquisition machines

You run two engines — and they barely touch

Confirmed against your channel knowledge: only 2.9% of intro members ever land on the fortnightly. Different engines, different owners — measure them separately, never averaged.

Web / trial machine
Intro $75 → Foundation
~391 intro starters/yr · 14% convert to a committed product, and when they do they choose 28 Day Foundation (20.5%) — the 24%-to-core, $701/member pathway. The website's natural value ladder.
Meta → phone machine
Direct onto the fortnightly
56% of Unlimited Fortnightly members enter straight onto it — no trial, not on the website price page. Surged 18 → 123 members/mo Jan–May 2026. Mature members hold ~6 months ≈ $1,033 each — more than a Foundation entrant.
Pattern watch · operator rulings

Three moving patterns — flagged, not concluded

1 · ClassPass share step-change. 13% → 24% of all attendance in March 2025, held since — on a flat room, that maths as roughly one-for-one substitution of direct visits. Needs your ruling: deliberate inventory opening, genuine substitution, or an ingest change that month. 🟡
2 · The 2026 recurring surge is too young to read. 182 new fortnightly members since January cannot show a retention curve yet. Watch them monthly against the mature benchmark (~6 months / ~12 billings). If their curve bends below it, the surge is decaying faster than the proven base — catch it while it's cheap to adjust. 🟡 censored
3 · Foundation has stopped acquiring — but isn't dead. ~0% of new members enter on it in 2026, yet it still sells ~410×/month to existing members. Reads as deliberate repositioning toward the recurring ladder — confirm it was. If the phone channel's surge cohort holds like its mature base, this trade ($701 one-shot → ~$1,033 recurring) is value-accretive.
What this sets up

The first-month cliff is where the first build goes.

It's the largest leak by a wide margin, it sits on a reversible lever, and the data already hints the lever can work: members who reach lock-in practised about twice as hard in their first fortnight. Stage 5 targets the first two weeks of a new member's life — second and third class before the habit fails to form. Alongside it, two cheap moves are queued: the drop-in → intro upgrade nudge (test-first, A/B specced) and the monthly watch on the 2026 recurring surge. The design and the numbers behind it are the next stage's job, not this one's.